Close Race Could Mean Election-Result Delay

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Overnight

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China’s BYD overtakes Tesla revenue for first time BBC

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Trafigura warns of up to $1.1bn loss over Mongolian oil scandal FT

Airbus delivers first extra-long-range Airbus A321 as smaller jets fly farther CNBC

H5N1 bird flu identified in pig for first time in United States CNN

Russia fines Google $2.5 decillion (2.5 trillion trillion trillion dollars) IND

Chart of the Day

Close Race Could Mean Election-Result Delay
Overnight
S&P Futures -48 point(s) (-0.8% )
Overnight range: -51 to -8 point(s)
 
APAC
Nikkei -0.5%
Topix -0.3%
China SHCOMP +0.42%
Hang Seng -0.31%
Korea -1.45%
Singapore flat
Australia -0.25%
India -0.57%
Taiwan flat
 
Europe
Stoxx 50 -0.77%
Stoxx 600 -0.76%
FTSE 100 -0.72%
DAX -0.6%
CAC 40 -0.77%
Italy -0.35%
IBEX -0.38%
 
FX
Dollar Index (DXY) +0.05% to 104.04
EUR/USD +0.04% to 1.086
GBP/USD +0.04% to 1.2967
USD/JPY -0.7% to 152.34
USD/CNY +0.04% to 7.1188
USD/CNH +0.01% to 7.1263
USD/CHF -0.15% to 0.8654
USD/CAD +0.12% to 1.3921
AUD/USD -0.05% to 0.6569
 
Crypto
BTC -0.74% to 72293.43
ETH -1.58% to 2636.28
XRP -1.11% to 0.519
Cardano -0.58% to 0.357
Solana +0.03% to 174.87
Avalanche -1.31% to 25.83
Dogecoin +1.3% to 0.1719
Chainlink -1.47% to 12.08
 
Commodities and Others
VIX +7.17% to 21.81
WTI Crude +0.57% to 69.0
Brent Crude +0.43% to 72.86
Nat Gas -1.48% to 2.8
RBOB Gas -0.08% to 1.994
Heating Oil +0.48% to 2.198
Gold -0.3% to 2779.26
Silver -0.44% to 33.63
Copper +0.26% to 4.363
 
US Treasuries
1M -1.1bps to 4.7273%
3M -0.8bps to 4.5677%
6M -0.6bps to 4.4667%
12M -1.1bps to 4.2688%
2Y -0.8bps to 4.1744%
5Y -0.2bps to 4.1599%
7Y -0.5bps to 4.2213%
10Y -0.6bps to 4.2944%
20Y -0.8bps to 4.612%
30Y -1.0bps to 4.4936%
 
UST Term Structure
2Y-3 M Spread narrowed 1.3bps to -41.2 bps
10Y-2 Y Spread widened 0.2bps to 11.6 bps
30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.2bps to 19.9 bps
 
Yesterday's Recap
SPX -0.33%
SPX Eq Wt -0.22%
NASDAQ 100 -0.79%
NASDAQ Comp -0.56%
Russell Midcap +0.02%
R2k -0.23%
R1k Value -0.11%
R1k Growth -0.46%
R2k Value +0.08%
R2k Growth -0.53%
FANG+ -0.32%
Semis -2.43%
Software -0.23%
Biotech -0.14%
Regional Banks +1.01% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Comm Srvcs +0.99%
Fin +0.42%
REITs +0.39%
Materials +0.37%
Energy +0.04%
Cons Disc +0.01%
Healthcare -0.19%
Indu -0.19%
Utes -0.24%
Cons Staples -0.26%
SPX -0.33%
Tech -1.34%
 
USD HY OaS
All Sectors -10.2bp to 327bp
All Sectors ex-Energy -9.3bp to 304bp
Cons Disc -9.9bp to 280bp
Indu -8.8bp to 241bp
Tech -8.9bp to 318bp
Comm Srvcs -13.2bp to 524bp
Materials -10.0bp to 300bp
Energy -11.0bp to 313bp
Fin Snr -7.9bp to 287bp
Fin Sub -5.3bp to 204bp
Cons Staples -8.8bp to 311bp
Healthcare -11.3bp to 366bp
Utes -9.0bp to 210bp *
DateTimeDescriptionEstimateLast
10/318:30AMSep PCE m/m0.20.1
10/318:30AMSep Core PCE m/m0.270.13
10/318:30AMSep PCE y/y2.12.2
10/318:30AMSep Core PCE y/y2.62.67847
10/318:30AM3Q ECI QoQ0.90.9
11/18:30AMOct AHE m/m0.30.4
11/18:30AMOct Unemployment Rate4.14.1
11/18:30AMOct Non-farm Payrolls101.0254.0
11/19:45AMOct F S&P Manu PMI47.847.8
11/110AMOct ISM Manu PMI47.647.2
11/410AMSep F Durable Gds Ordersn/a-0.8
11/58:30AMSep Trade Balance-73.5-70.431
11/510AMOct ISM Srvcs PMI53.354.9
11/69:45AMOct F S&P Srvcs PMIn/a55.3

MORNING INSIGHT

Good morning!

Our client survey shows that 75% of clients see the election results delayed, with the plurality seeing the winner declared more than a week after Nov 5th.  

Click HERE for more.

TECHNICAL

  • SPX is choppy near-term but likely pushes up into early November before a peak.
  • Breadth readings per SPX Members above 10-day m.a. have plummeted lately.
  • MSFT and LLY technical analysis given their earnings and volatility lately.

Click HERE for more.

CRYPTO

The anticipated MicroStrategy BTC bid and an array of broader macro factors support the bullish case for crypto.

Click HERE for more.

First News

With the election less than a week away, much has been written about how unreliable polls have become. Fundstrat’s Washington Policy Analyst Tom Block has told us that in his conversations, polling professionals who have worked with both major parties are frustrated by the effects of the near-elimination of residential landlines. It has become increasingly tough to get potential voters to answer the phone when Caller ID shows an incoming call from an unfamiliar number, and perhaps just as importantly, it has become difficult to reliably assess where the participant lives and will vote. As Block notes, someone with, say, a Connecticut area code is no longer necessarily a Connecticut resident or registered voter. 

Betting markets have helped fill in the gap, providing a new source of information about public opinion. Real Clear Polling lists eight markets in which people can place bets on the Presidential contest, and the app-based brokerage Robinhood recently announced its entry into the field. Proponents assert that because people are putting their own money on the line, the resulting betting odds might in fact be a more reliable gauge of public opinion. Critics counter that in aggregate, those placing bets are not necessarily representative of U.S. voters as a whole – perhaps skewing male, and perhaps comprised of a significant number of non-Americans. And of course, there’s a difference between betting on who one believes will win and betting on the candidate for whom one intends to vote. The two are not necessarily the same. 

Perhaps for political polling, as for so many other challenges these days, AI might have the answer? Some suggest that there’s no need to ask actual people for their political opinions, when AI can scour the Internet – social media, chat rooms, etc. – and use analytics to glean insights about evolving public opinion.

A second option involves using AI chatbots to conduct polls. This makes it possible to attempt to poll much larger pools of potential respondents without hiring huge numbers of human pollsters. Furthermore, some researchers suggest that AI-conducted polls could be superior when sensitive or controversial topics like abortion are involved: Respondents might be more willing to provide honest responses if they know that they aren’t interacting with an actual human being. 

Still others are experimenting with using pools of AI agents or personas that have been trained on datasets to simulate actual human beings with specific demographic, economic, geographic, and sociopolitical characteristics, and then simply using them as artificial polling participants. The obvious advantage to this approach is that an AI agent will always be willing to “answer the phone” and provide an honest – albeit synthetic – opinion about any issue or question put forth.

That’s what the startup called Aaru did ahead of the Democratic primary for New York’s 16th Congressional District, in which George Latimer defeated incumbent Jamaal Bowman by 45,909 to 32,440. Aaru correctly predicted the winner, projecting that Latimer would get 58.7% of the votes to 41.3% for Bowman. The actual result? 58.6% to 41.4%. What’s more, Aaru’s “polls” can be conducted in under two minutes and at a significantly lower cost.

Ultimately, however, regardless of what AI can do, the most important poll will take place across the U.S. on November 5. SEM, HKS, SN

Disclosures (show)

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