Working for 'no landing'

A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell

“Pain is nothing compared to what it feels like to quit. Give everything you got today for tomorrow may never come.” ~ Dan Gable

Overnight

Central Beirut hit as Israel vows ‘very strong’ response to Iran BBG

Bank of America says widespread outage is nearly fixed CNN

US securities regulator’s top cop to leave agency RT

Wall Street races to bring private credit to the masses WSJ

EU taps Emanuele Tarantino as new chief competition economist SEM

Auto giants are getting nervous about the prospect of mega fines as EV demand falters CNBC

Saudi minister warns of $50 oil as OPEC+ members flout production curbs WSJ

Global rice prices fall after India eases exports SEM

US bans new types of goods from China over allegations of forced labor AP

Helene took out an N.C. town the entire tech world relies on AX

Trump-Harris betting markets clear a legal hurdle BAR

Cybersecurity head says there’s no chance a foreign adversary can change US election results AP

Atlanta likely to be covered by haze and chlorine odor from chemical lab fire, officials warn CNBC

Judge blocks new California law cracking down on election deepfakes AP

Amazon plans to hire 250,000 workers for the holidays, same as last year RT

OpenAI closes funding at $157 billion valuation, as Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank join round CNBC

Did Apple kill social apps with iOS 18 change? NYT

Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drugs no longer in shortage BAR

Tesla stock slips after EV maker misses estimates on deliveries CNBC

Humana shares plunge after changes in Medicare star ratings WSJ

Costco adds platinum bars to its precious metals lineup CNBC

Toyota boosts its investment in air taxi company Joby Aviation by another $500 million AP

Nintendo shows off Mario, Zelda, and 135 years of history in a new Kyoto museum NPR

Chart of the Day

Working for 'no landing'
Overnight
S&P Futures -6 point(s) (-0.1% )
overnight range: -34 to +13 point(s)
 
APAC
Nikkei +1.97%
Topix +1.20%
China SHCOMP +8.06%
Hang Seng -1.47%
Korea -1.22%
Singapore -0.20%
Australia +0.09%
India -2.12%
Taiwan +0.75%
 
Europe
Stoxx 50 -0.40%
Stoxx 600 -0.49%
FTSE 100 +0.35%
DAX -0.37%
CAC 40 -0.59%
Italy -0.49%
IBEX +0.37%
 
FX
Dollar Index (DXY) +0.16% to 101.84
EUR/USD -0.06% to 1.1038
GBP/USD -1.25% to 1.3102
USD/JPY -0.18% to 146.73
USD/CNY -0.11% to 7.0187
USD/CNH -0.13% to 7.0454
USD/CHF -0.07% to 0.8503
USD/CAD -0.28% to 1.3540
AUD/USD -0.58% to 0.6845
 
UST Term Structure
2Y-3 M Spread widened 2.2bps to -93.4bps
10Y-2 Y Spread widened 0.6bps to 14.2bps
30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed -0.4bps to 34.1bps
 
Yesterday's Recap
SPX +0.01%
SPX Eq Wt -0.11%
NASDAQ 100 +0.15%
NASDAQ Comp +0.08%
Russell Midcap -0.00%
R2k -0.09%
R1k Value -0.05%
R1k Growth +0.07%
R2k Value -0.30%
R2k Growth +0.11%
FANG+ +0.54%
Semis +1.44%
Software +0.85%
Biotech +0.12%
Regional Banks -0.22% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Staples -0.78%
Cons Disc -0.78%
Comm Srvcs -0.44%
REITs -0.37%
Materials -0.33%
Healthcare -0.20%
Indu -0.20%
SPX +0.01%
Utes +0.05%
Fin +0.10%
Tech +0.59%
Energy +1.12%
 
USD HY OaS
All Sectors -1.1bps to 354bps
All Sectors ex-Energy -0.8bps 328bps
Cons Disc -1.9bps 311bps
Indu -0.3bps 255bps
Tech -1.1bps 354bps
Comm Srvcs -1.1bps 571bps
Materials -0.6bps 322bps
Energy -2.4bps 329bps
Fin Snr -0.7bps 314bps
Fin Sub +0.2bps 226bps
Cons Staples -0.1bps 325bps
Healthcare -0.7bps 374bps
Utes -0.4bps 222bps *
DateTimeDescriptionEstimateLast
10/39:45 AMSep F S&P Srvcs PMI55.455.4
10/310:00 AMSep ISM Srvcs PMI51.751.5
10/310:00 AMAug F Durable Gds Orders00
10/48:30 AMSep AHE m/m0.30.4
10/48:30 AMSep Unemployment Rate4.24.2
10/48:30 AMSep Non-farm Payrolls150142
10/86:00 AMSep Small Biz Optimisumn/a91.2
10/88:30 AMAug Trade Balance-72.5-78.791
10/92:00 PMSep 18 FOMC Minutesn/a0
10/92:00 PMSep 18 FOMC Minutesn/a0

MORNING INSIGHT

Good morning!

Incoming data is supportive of a “no landing” which is good. ADP jobs Sept suggests Friday jobs could surprise to upside. Tailwinds are still greater than headwinds.

Click HERE for more.

TECHNICAL

  • Short-term consolidation likely complete by end of week.
  • China’s Equity market surge is ongoing and still looks difficult to fight.
  • Equity Put/call data seems more Neutral than either bullish, or bearish.

Click HERE for more.

CRYPTO

Crypto prices have rebounded slightly following an earlier sharp selloff, with BTC climbing back above $61,000 and SOL moving above $145, while ETH is lagging, trading around $2,400. Among the outperformers is SUI.

Click HERE for more.

First News

On the sidelines of the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly last week, 14 major financial institutions – Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Ares Management, Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Brookfield, Citi, Credit Agricole CIB, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim Securities, Morgan Stanley, Rothschild & Co, Segra Capital Management, and Societe Generale – issued a joint statement supporting an initiative to triple the world’s nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Though devoid of details or binding commitments, the show of support from the financial sector was yet more signal of coalescing, broad-based backing for nuclear power as projections of electricity demands continue to levitate. 

Other signs include the recently announced deal in which Constellation will restart Three Mile Island’s Reactor One and sell all 835 megawatts of power to Microsoft for the next 20 years. Constellation’s willingness to pay the entirety of the $1.6 billion it will cost to restart the reactor, even though in 2019 it had deemed it unprofitable, hints at the magnitude of the premium Microsoft reportedly agreed to pay for the electricity. 

Three Mile Island is the site of the worst nuclear accident in U.S. history. The 1979 accident, in which Reactor Two suffered a partial meltdown, seriously damaged U.S. public opinion of nuclear power for decades to come The dearth of panicked outcry surrounding the Microsoft announcement suggests that the need to add power capacity has grown serious enough to override any fears that might still linger in public consciousness. (Just in case, though, Constellation plans to change the site’s name to the Crane Clean Energy Center.)

Much of this added power demand is projected to come from the Tech sector – AI companies and data-center operators. Unsurprisingly, other tech companies are also considering or actively planning to incorporate nuclear power into their respective strategies – among them Oracle, OpenAI, Google, and Amazon.

Constellation and Microsoft might have hoped to make history as the first shuttered nuclear power plant in the U.S. to be revived, but they are likely to be beaten to the punch by Holtec International, which on Tuesday was officially awarded a $1.52 billion loan from the Department of Energy to reopen Michigan’s Palisades nuclear power plant, which was shut down in 2022. Holtec hopes to restart the plant next year, while the Three Mile Island deal currently has a 2028 projected startup date. 

In the U.S., 94 reactors currently generate about 100 gigawatts of power (roughly 18% of the country’s 2023 electricity demands). Tripling that output would require roughly 200 new plants – no small feat given the time, money, and effort required. Efforts to streamline the process could end up benefiting coal country. 

There are few shuttered reactors that can be feasibly restarted in the way Holtec and Microsoft/Constelation are hoping to do. For building new plants and bringing them online, shuttered coal plants, as well as operational coal plants slated for closure, could serve as the site for new nuclear reactors. These come with the advantage of already having transmission and infrastructure in place, resulting in cost savings of as much as 35%. The Department of Energy lists 27 shuttered coal plants and 29 coal plants slated for closure within the next five years that could potentially be repurposed in this way. (VRG, FT, WSJ, CNBC)

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