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Post-FOMC, We See Higher Probabilities for March Cut Than Consensus

On Wednesday, January 31, the Federal Open Markets Committee announced that it would keep its target-rate range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Just as with its decisions since last July, this was in line with the market’s expectations.

The Federal Reserve had made a dovish pivot at the previous FOMC meeting on December 12-13, and investors responded accordingly. At the time, many anticipated cuts to begin as early as March: Fed futures trading in the first weeks following the meeting implied that th...

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