Less “I” on horizon. Markets can see through weaker “e” if “I” disinflating

Cooling of inflation (“i”) aka disinflation is Fed primary focus and in 1H2022, the sole focus of markets. Obviously, there remains the question of how quickly inflation can cool, and this lack of visibility unsettles markets. But as we discuss below, energy prices have dropped sharply in the past few weeks with Natural gas down -45% and oil -14% and we have heard that food suppliers are sitting on mounting food inventories. Thus, headline drivers of inflation (food + energy) could be cooli...

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