In The Two Weeks Since Start Of This “Global Shakeup” a Few Winners Are Emerging. PLUS: VIX -5.5% + S&P 500 Down 1%=Often Bottom

In the two weeks since the start of this “global shakeup” a few winners are emerging
The invasion and war between Russia-Ukraine is moving past its second week and financial markets have been roiled by the trifecta reinforcing risks of: (i) war risks; (ii) economic sanctions and associated soaring commodity prices and (iii) risk of escalation given Western fears of Putin. And for the most part, markets view this as solely a downside story. But that has not been entirely the case. With two weeks of conflict observed, here are three things we see as “gaining” or “stronger” compared to pre-Russia-Ukraine war:

  • Commodity producers benefit from higher prices
  • Energy supply and security is national security
  • US equities have been massive outperformers, reflecting the USA role as “safe haven”

Take a look at the relative performance of regional stocks vs MSCI ACWI (all world index). Of the 7 indices below:

  • USA and Latin America clearly outperforming
  • Europe and EM have been massive underperformers
  • Latin America outperformance is due mainly to commodity exposure
  • Russia equities have imploded, yet the value of Russia commodity infrastructure has risen in value
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This shows a more detailed breakout and this regional bias is clear:

countries with greater expos...

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