Equities faced some new headwinds this week. (i) Vaccine supply in the US is being questioned, as the White House passed on buying more Pfizer doses (but US has ordered 700 million doses), (ii) the stimulus relief package seems stuck in the Washington quagmire (iii) The Federal trade commission and multiple state attorney generals brought anti-trust charges to Facebook and (iv) there is a natural questions of whether the AirBnB and Doordash IPOs created a lot of new supply.

And if these were not enough, COVID-19 cases are surging widely in the US, hospitalizations are at record levels and deaths are elevated. Nevertheless, I think there are still several reasons that stocks and epicenter stocks in particular have solid runway through year end and into next year. More on this below.

The absolute number of COVID-19 cases continues to set new records. Thursday daily cases were 213,446, but the 7D delta (leading indicator) is slowing and excluding California (which has ~30,000 per day), this 7D delta is now negative. Hence, I see this as a tentative rollover, as post-Thanksgiving cases can again surge. Next week we will be clear of those post-holiday distortions so if the 7D delta remains negative, the rollover is confirmed.

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