Given the fierce move by equities in the past few weeks, it is not entirely surprising to see stocks consolidate over the last few days.  And not surprisingly, there are more than a few who believe markets have become overly exuberant.  To an extent, I understand this. There has been both a sizable move in markets coupled with a sizable rotation into epicenter stocks. However, I still see upside into year end. More on this below.

On the COVID-19 front, daily cases came in at 181,547 on Thursday, and Wave 3 remains on the rise. And although the daily change vs 7D ago, which is the key leading indicator we track, dipped below 20,000 on Wednesday, it jumped again on Thursday to 32,824.

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And daily deaths from COVID-19 in wave 3 are now meaningfully higher than the death toll seen in wave 2 and are only 27% below the peaks in Wave 1. Given daily cases are almost four times the magnitude of wave 1 and are a leading indicator of mortalities, we should expect daily deaths from COVID to surge in the coming weeks.

But it is worth mentioning that in just the past few weeks, we have witnessed advances in the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. While we are not yet seeing this in reduced cases or mortality, these collectively should slow the scourge of COVID-19 and ev...

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