As we close out the week, the best development I see is the recent sustained downturn in COVID-19 cases in the US. This decline (7D delta) is even faster than the retreat seen in April/May after this initial surge. Thus, it seems like COVID-19 cases are improving at a faster pace.

Overall, this affirms my view that the June-July surge in COVID-19 cases plateaued in late July. If this is a textbook peak, similar to what was seen in NY tristate, we could see crushing declines in coming weeks. Across all states, cases are slowing and this reflects the combination of increased mask compliance, better social distance efforts.

This is quite positive and is in contrast to the mainstream narrative that COVID-19 is spreading to new states and causing more outbreaks. If we look at which states are reporting the largest 7D increase in daily cases, they are at the bottom of the US states (in terms of daily cases). And, if we look at the states with the highest number of daily cases, they are seeing the biggest 7D declines.

Another piece of good news is that hospitalizations are down ~6,500 from their peak two weeks ago (7/23). So, cases have plateaued and while many expect deaths to soar, hospitalizations trending down means fewer infected require hospitalizations.

The way I see...

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