COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.

Stocks have taken continued bad news in stride: a mixed earnings picture, plus terrible data as 4.4 million jobless claims show the economic damage is broadening. Most investors are already aware that the economy is worsening. The bigger element of uncertainty at the moment is the pace at which the consumer will re-engage, particularly with the "social distance taboo" of restaurants, travel and entertainment.

A lot has happened in the past week and here’s my breakdown.

POINT #1: A notable developments was a serological study (antibody-based) of NY state. Some 3,000 people were randomly tested. Most surprising was that NY governor Mario Cuomo suggested ~14% of NY residents have already been exposed to COVID-19 and >21% for NYC, or 10X and 13x the "official" case count, respectively. This is the fifth fairly large-scale serological study, including places like Los Angeles County and Gengelt, Germany, with similar conclusions. The actual prevalence of COVID-19, based on antibodies, is 13X-50X-80X greater than official tallies.

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