Last week’s message from both NY (the epicenter) and the White House is that COVID-19 is on track to undershoot "peak" utilization of the healthcare system, a critical development. Earlier in this crisis, the risk to the country was an overburdened healthcare system, leading to needless deaths. The other message remains that NY State does indeed seem to be moving through the apex of the crisis and the other side is a flattening of case growth, decreasing hospitalization admissions and eventually a tapering of deaths.

This is good news primarily for humanity but for markets, too. As the intensity eases of the crisis in New York, 35% of the 435,000 U.S. cases, the key for seeing a decline in overall USA case growth depends upon:

- other cities, counties, states seeing COVID-19 curves below NY;

- local governments using best practices to contain spread via testing or social distance;

- and optimized treatment regimens.

We are seeing widespread deceleration of case growth seen across the U.S., based on county-level data, so it is useful to track that rather than state level. Our tireless data scientist (Ken Xuan) enhanced some of the county level data (coming from John Hopkins) and several interesting insights emerge.

Point #1: Widespread deceleration of U.S...

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