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VIDEO: Stocks managed to recover ground on Tuesday as it appears the White House wants to de-escalate tariff deliberations and we will closely watch Bessent’s comments Wed at the IIF

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:06).

Equity markets continue to closely monitor macroeconomic developments, particularly around the ongoing trade tensions with China. Key economic data scheduled for Wednesday includes S&P Global Services PMIs, March new home sales figures, and the April Fed Beige Book. However, investors’ primary focus is likely to be on Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 10 a.m. speech at the Institute for International Finance.

• The heightened attention to Secretary Bessent’s upcoming remarks stems from reports, including one from Bloomberg, indicating a recent closed-door discussion between Bessent and JP Morgan clients.
  – During this meeting, Bessent suggested the situation with China is likely to de-escalate from its current state, which essentially amounts to a trade embargo.
  – Importantly, Bessent underscored that the United States is not aiming to decouple from
  – China (a positive twist), though a comprehensive deal might require two to three years. Although subsequent media reports downplayed these comments, Press Secretary Levitt reinforced the administration’s stance, highlighting ongoing trade discussions with 34 countries and referencing President Trump’s optimistic outlook regarding a potential deal with China.
• Economic consequences from the ongoing trade situation are becoming more evident.
  – Long-haul transport, as highlighted by Craig Fuller, is down over 20%, in stark contrast to stable local delivery figures.
  – This data suggests deeper weaknesses in supply chains, with some economists seeing a possibility of shortages on retail shelves within a few months and some investors worried about the U.S. falling into a recession
• Nevertheless, high-yield spreads have continued to rally, something that does not usually occur before a recession
  – Moreover, despite recent market anxieties triggered by President Trump’s criticisms of Fed Chair Powell, the likelihood of Powell’s removal remains relatively low—polymarket betting odds currently stand around 20%. Maintaining Federal Reserve independence remains critical, though the market reaction to policy announcements highlights the significant influence of individual decisions.
  – For instance, the market’s robust 10% rally on April 9 following the White House’s tariff pause demonstrates the rapid positive responses achievable through swift policy adjustments.
• Technically, the S&P 500 sits near the crucial 5,500 level, and despite expecting volatility, the market structure remains bullish overall.
  – A V-shaped recovery, however, appears unlikely. Instead, a range-bound environment seems more probable due to ongoing concerns over potential escalation in trade tensions, recessionary pressures, financial deleveraging, persistent inflation worries, or greater-than-expected declines in S&P earnings.
• Adding complexity, the earnings season is ongoing, with cyclical sectors and AI-linked companies reporting results.
  – TSLA 5.99% , despite missing expectations post-market Tuesday, has held up relatively well, suggesting investor sentiment may already be pricing in significant negatives.
  – Similarly, stocks related to BTC, like MSTR 0.52% , appear to have bottomed, having traded positively since their March lows.

Bottom Line: While investors are understandably nervous, we think it makes sense to put on the “investor hat” as pace and cadence of data this week should skew positive 

• Many fears remain, including:
  • Tariff war turns into “Cold War.”
  • Economic ripples from “shock” lead to global recession.
  • Financial crisis ensues from rapid financial de-leveraging.
  • Inflation expectations surge leading to “greed-flation” and Fed is forced to hike rates.
  • S&P 500 EPS estimates fall >20% from here.
    
• As for macro, quite a bit incoming on Wednesday, but investor focus likely to be on Bessent at IIF
  – 4/23 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI    49.0e
  – 4/23 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI    52.8e
  – 4/23 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks at IIF
  – 4/23 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales    685ke
  – 4/23 Wed 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book  
  – 4/24 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM    2.0%e
  – 4/24 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index   0.18e
  – 4/24 Thu 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales    4me
  – 4/25 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
  
• There is a lot of Fed speak this week (see below) although no comments from Powell are scheduled 
  – 4/21 Mon 8:30 AM ET: Goolsbee Appears on CNBC     
  – 4/22 Tue 9:00 AM ET: Jefferson Speaks at Economic Mobility Summit    
  – 4/22 Tue 9:30 AM ET: Harker Speaks at Economic Mobility Summit     
  – 4/22 Tue 1:40 PM ET: Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Discussion     
  – 4/22 Tue 2:30 PM ET: Barkin Speaks in Fireside Chat     
  – 4/22 Tue 6:00 PM ET: Kugler Speaks on Monetary Policy Transmission      
  – 4/23 Wed 12:00 AM ET: Kugler Gives Brief Introductory Remarks      
  – 4/23 Wed 9:00 AM ET: Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks      
  – 4/23 Wed 9:30 AM ET: Musalem Gives Opening Remarks      
  – 4/23 Wed 9:35 AM ET: Waller Gives Opening Remarks      
  – 4/23 Wed 6:30 PM ET: Hammack Speaks on Balance Sheet     
  – 4/24 Thu 5:00 PM ET: Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Discussion     

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Key incoming data April:

• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance Tame
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI Tame
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls Hot
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Mixed
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Hot
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Mixed
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales Tame
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows Tame
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index Mixed
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: