Today may have seen the quiet return of the "Trump put" Array ( [cookie] => 427fd6-5bef97-ed88a9-48652c-149830 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 0 [user_id] => 0 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: The message from the White House has changed from “no negotiation on tariffs” to “President has maximum leverage to negotiate” which we see as signaling the return of the Trump put.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 07:57).

Markets began Monday anticipating a major sell-off, bracing for a potential “Black Monday” following two days of sharp declines. However, equities instead stabilized, finishing flat—a surprisingly constructive outcome given the ominous setup. This resilience can be attributed to what appears to be the reemergence of the “Trump put,” a reference to the market-calming influence exerted when President Trump signals a willingness to negotiate on trade.

• This shift in tone began with the de-escalation in rhetoric and actions from both the European Union and the UK.
  – The EU’s offer of zero-for-zero tariffs on industrial goods and autos marked a meaningful pivot away from confrontation.
  – Markets had not priced in such a conciliatory stance, making the news a clear upside surprise.
  – Compounding this was a notable rhetorical change from the White House.
  – Previously firm positions—repeating “tariffs are not negotiable”—softened as Trump indicated through social media that Japan and other countries are now actively entering trade negotiations with the U.S., with the number of negotiating nations rising from 50 to 70.
  – The messaging has shifted from confrontation to deal-making.
  
• This recalibration of tone also extends to internal White House dynamics.
  – Hawkish voices like Navarro and Lutnick continue to advocate a hardline stance, but moderates such as Scott Bessent and Elon Musk are now gaining visibility.
  – Musk’s invocation of Milton Friedman’s free-market ideals on social media underscored this shift.
  – Additionally, Charlie Gasparino reported that the administration is strategically pivoting to emphasize deal-making as a way to restore market confidence.
  – The divergence in views inside the White House is no longer being hidden—it’s being operationalized to create leverage and soothe markets.
  
• Reinforcing this turn in sentiment was Monday’s market reaction to a fresh announcement of a 50% tariff increase on Chinese goods.
  – Although equities initially dropped 2% around 11:15 AM, they rebounded to finish in the green—another sign investors believe the administration is regaining control of the narrative and is no longer escalating toward uncertainty.
  – Trump appears to be timing this shift precisely when he has the most negotiating leverage—after allowing foreign markets to digest U.S. silence and after domestic CEOs have begun lobbying foreign leaders themselves.
  
• Meanwhile, the White House likely understands that continued stock market losses would weaken its leverage. If U.S. equities fall too far, the bargaining position on tariffs erodes.
  – Hence, today’s rebound suggests the administration is drawing a line. This aligns with the broader view that a crashing U.S. stock market isn’t strategic—it’s counterproductive.
  
• Adding to the backdrop is growing discussion around recession risk. Larry Fink stated at the Economic Club of New York that a recession is likely already underway, and prediction markets reflect similar expectations with odds as high as 62%.
  – Yet despite this, economic activity is being pulled forward by tariff-related panic buying, particularly in durable goods like iPhones.
  – Apple, for example, is reportedly seeing a surge in consumer demand as buyers anticipate further disruptions.
  
• Importantly, there are also meaningful offsets to the tariff impact that help support the consumer.
  – Lower oil prices could return $75–150 billion to household balance sheets, while lower interest rates may offer another $150 billion in relief.
  – On top of that, potential tax benefits from a new bill could provide an additional buffer.
  – These tailwinds could significantly blunt the impact of any trade-related shocks and help explain the market’s stability today.
  
• Turning to market technicals, equities remain deeply oversold.
  – The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio excluding FANG stands at 15x—a historically reasonable multiple.
  – Only four times since 1950 have there been two consecutive 5% down days, and each of those instances was followed by double-digit gains over the following 12 months.
  – Moreover, just 23% of stocks are above their 50-day moving average, indicating the market is at a pessimistic extreme. Over the past decade, when this has occurred, equities were higher 6 and 12 months later every time.
  – The VIX term structure is also inverted—a sign of elevated near-term fear that, paradoxically, often marks a turning point at its peak inversion.
  

Bottom Line: We see evidence of Trump Put quietly returning with messaging from the White House shifting from “no negotiations” to “President has maximum leverage to negotiate”

WEEK AHEAD: Is Trump trying to “kill the stock market”?

1. Tariffs are here to stay, but the long-term rate is unknown
   – $300 to $600 billion per year
2. Positive option value if Trump de-escalates: 50% total
   – EU decides not to escalate
   – UK or a major nation mutual concession
   – Trump decides to say something incrementally positive
   – delays April 9th date by 90 days
3. “Main Street over Wall Street” means companies take EPS hit
   – not “let stock market fall”
4. Even if tariffs move forward as is, we do not expect a recession in the US in 2025.  Stocks have declined 20%.
5. “Main Street over Wall Street” means companies take EPS hit
   – not “let stock market fall”
6. How to help Main Street:
   – end taxes on social security,
   – end taxes tips & overtime
   – deduction interest for domestic-made cars
   – lower interest rates
7. Why no recession:
   – Consumers take half “hit” of the tarif  -> -$150-$300 billion hit
   – oil price to $50 from $70 –> +$75-$150 billion savings
   – lower floating interest rates 100bp -> +$35 billion savings
   – lower mortgage interest rates 100bp -> +$125 billion savings
   – reconciliation bill with tax cut -> +$??? billion savings
   

TARIFF DE-ESCALATION: Several positives today

1. Positive option value if Trump de-escalates: 50% total
   – EU decides not to escalate
   – UK or a major nation mutual concession
   – Trump decides to say something incrementally positive
   – delays April 9th date by 90 days
2. EU & UK did not escalate
3. Narrative changed:
   President maximum leverage and ready to negotiate
4. Trump retaliation on China did not hammer stocks
   – bad news increasingly priced in
5. Fractures among White House views continues
   – Musk posting Milton Friedman

MARKET STRATEGY: Patience as no policymaker in “panic”

1. Markets can bottom when policymakers “panic”
2. Fed said they will be “patient” unless credit cracks
3. White House could announce a “pause” or action before April 9th
4. Equity investors are “record short” but not technical signs of capitulation per Mark Newton

Quantitative analysis: stocks “stretched massively” to downside:
– P/E ’26E ex-MAG7 15X   -> not demanding
– back-back -4.5% declines  -> 4X since 1950, 4/4 higher 12M later
– 23% stocks >200dma   -> 94% 6M win-ratio, 92% 12M win-ratio
– VIX 4M less 1M -7.9 inversion   -> 100% win-ratio 1M later

_____________________________

45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here

______________________________

PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.

Key incoming data April:

• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance Tame
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI Tame
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls Hot
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: