VIDEO: Friday was an important day last week as we saw incrementally positive glimmers of a Trump and Fed put, while economy holding up better than expected. Also Mark Newton thinks we potentially bottomed but follow thru needed this week.
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:39).
- Markets experienced significant volatility last week, highlighted by an important intraday reversal on Friday.
- Stocks initially saw a sharp decline before staging a notable positive intraday reversal.
- Mark Newton notes the potential for a market low, emphasizing that confirmation could be seen this coming week
- Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 approached critical support levels, specifically the 200-day moving average, echoing historical patterns observed during previous significant rallies like fall 2023.
- The positive market reversal was catalyzed by resilient employment data:
- February jobs report was in-line with expectations, adding 151,000 jobs.
- Government employment grew overall, despite slight shrinkage in federal government employment.
- Private-sector hiring improved notably in February compared to January, mitigating fears of a deeper economic slowdown.
- The return of the “Fed put” and “Trump put” narratives also played a key role.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated a controlled shift from public spending to private sector growth.
- Bessent does not currently foresee immediate economic distress, though acknowledges an “adjustment” period.
- He emphasized there is no explicit “Trump put,” yet implied a willingness to act if economic pain arises.
- On inflation, Bessent highlighted mitigating factors to tariff-related inflation, including lower energy costs and reduced regulatory burdens, referencing a $1,200 annual household regulatory cost from the Committee to Unleash Prosperity.
- Fed Chair Powell provided dovish signals, reinforcing the “Fed put.”
- Powell acknowledged that inflation might temporarily exceed the Fed’s 2% target, signaling a flexible and dovish policy approach.
- Powell also minimized concerns over tariffs, suggesting a one-time inflationary impact, drawing parallels with 2019 when the Fed cut rates amid similar economic conditions.
- Inflation data provided further comfort:
- Manheim used car price index showed a notable decline of 0.7% YoY, its fastest drop in nearly a year, which often leads CPI movements.
- Looking ahead, the coming week is packed with significant macroeconomic data releases:
- 3/10 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Feb NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
- 3/11 Tue 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey 101e
- 3/11 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings 7665ke
- 3/12 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core CPI MoM 0.30%e
- 3/13 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core PPI MoM 0.28%e
- 3/14 Fri: US Government shutdown (Continuing Resolution expires)
- 3/14 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp 4.2%e
Bottom Line: gauntlet of a week, stay on target




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Key incoming data March:
3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMITame3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMITame3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMITame3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods OrdersTame3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige BookTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm ProductivityTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade BalanceTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor CostsTame3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm PayrollsTame3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle indexTame- 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
- 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey
- 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings
- 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI
- 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI
- 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data
- 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey
- 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index
- 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index
- 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision
- 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows
- 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook
- 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales
- 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI
- 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
- 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
- 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
- 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
- 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
- 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:
