Exiting Feb, S&P 500 +7% YTD. Next key decision point is Feb CPI on March 12. Beware of "residual seasonality"

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: We discuss how the key date is likely March 12, Feb CPI day.  The key is the residual seasonal problem in Jan often spills into Feb

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:53).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

With the first two months of 2024 behind us, the S&P 500 is off to a strong start with YTD gains of +7%. As we noted in prior comments throughout this year, equity markets seem to be getting stronger in 2024, compared to 2023. This is measured by the resilience of stocks in the face of what appears to be a diminished number of Fed cuts.

We wrote previously that we saw little risk to stocks from the Fed potentially making fewer cuts in 2024. This has been true so far as stocks have risen even as the timing and number of Fed cuts has been sharply reduced since the start of 2024. And this will be true but as long as the Fed is seen as turning "dovish" -- that is just our opinion, but something to be mindful of. That is, at some point, if the "inflation is stubborn" narrative gains dominance, and the Fed is required to react to this, then markets may be pricing in a "tighter for longer" Fed. This is not our base case, and that is because we see the "stubborn inflation" st...
A FSI Macro, or FSI Pro subscription is required in order to access this content.

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 15%

    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      The Complete Package
      FSI Macro + FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      249
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      from
      $
      199
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
      Webinars and Media
      Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events.
      We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
      Research
      Weekdays
      The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
      On market events
      These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
      Daily
      Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
      Weekly
      Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
      Weekly
      Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
      Earnings season
      A multi-faceted update of earnings developments.
      Updated bi-weekly
      Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
      Stock Lists
      Updated quarterly
      Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.
      Updated monthly
      A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.
      Updated monthly
      Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.
      And More!
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the macro research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      99
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
      Webinars and Media
      Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
      Weekly
      Digestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
      Research
      Daily
      Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
      Intra month
      Hear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.
      Weekly
      From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
      Weekly
      A must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.
      Weekly
      Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
      Intra-month
      Our consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.
      And More!
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the crypto research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free