4Q23 EPS: 4 reasons EPS results are better than appears on surface, including potential China bottom.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: We discuss 4 factors that suggest 4Q23 EPS season stronger than many realize.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:56).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

This week will be the midpoint of 4Q23 EPS season (105 cos reporting). There have been several high profile EPS beats leading to massive stock moves such as $META and $PLTR. In our view, overall, this is proving to be a very strong EPS season. And we see 4 reasons it is probably stronger than appears on the surface:

At this midpoint, S&P 500 4Q23 EPS is tracking towards $54.00, up +0.70% from the start of the year. It is good that it is up, but this rise in estimates is somewhat modest compared to the last 15 years. On average, EPS estimates tends to rise +3% vs start of results season. It was higher during the past few years but the past 3 years are the exception. But the +0.70% figure is understated. Financials have seen EPS estimates fall since the start of the quarter by -14%. This is a result of the FDIC insurance fund assessing a $23 billion fee to cover the bailouts of regional banks.  Excluding this assessment, EPS is tracking +3.6% above start of quarter. This is above the 3.2% long-term average. And we are o...

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