The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: We discuss how upcoming macro data might give conflicting messages on inflation/growth and thus rates could be volatile in Dec, which causes equities to zig-zag.  But ultimately, YE rally intact.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 5:02).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

It seems like retail sales Black Friday have come in +2% to +5% above last year's levels, or a new record. In real-terms, this is sort of flat, so I would not look at strong Black Friday numbers as something the Fed has to panic about. But as we look towards markets into YE, we see a "zig-zag" but ultimately a rally towards S&P 500 4,750-4,800 $SPY.

The reason for the "zig-zag" is that we know rates markets (10-year) is still hyperreactive to the opposing forces of "falling goods and housing inflation" against resilient labor markets (aka "future inflation risk"). We have seen this dynamic this past year, including how FOMC members themselves react to the incoming data. And in the next 3 weeks, we see this dynamic at work:- 11/30 Oct PCE --> likely "soft" = higher equities- 12/8 Nov jobs report --> could be "strong" given low claims = market over-reaction- post-jobs, markets recover as investors "buy the ...

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