INTRADAY ALERT: July CPI good enough. Odds of a Nov hike fall 4% to 18% and eventually we expect to go to zero.

This morning July CPI was reported and the key number was core CPI MoM. This figure came in at +0.16% vs consensus of +0.22%. So it was a good figure, or at least good enough.

Core CPI has fallen to a pace consistent with ~2% inflation. +0.16% x 12 = 1.97% and this is <2% and this is the second consecutive month of low core CPI. Under the hood, shelter is still elevated with a MoM % increase of +0.47% and this pace is above the +0.45% last month. I don't think this wil...

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