First Word

Are US PMIs bottoming? If so, Industrials gain >90% of the time with 12M returns 20-30%. 5 stocks + 3 ETFs. While seasonals and "hotter" economic data drive risk-off, Fed becoming "data dependent" historically leads to rising stocks despite higher rates.

Following several somewhat "hotter" data prints, markets are now moving back into the "higher for longer" camp, and in turn, markets are shifting into risk-off. We think this will prove to be temporary as much of the "hot" inflationary data points stem, in part, from seasonals (Jan issues) and warmer weather (in Jan). So some payback is coming.

Still, this is just further reflect that equity markets have become "data reactive" while the Fed has become "data dependent." That is, for the past 5 months (since October 2022 lows), investor sentiment and "narratives" shift rapidly each data point, even as the larger story arc shows inflation slowing.

Some of the weakness in equities is purely "seasonals" as the composite of "rule of 1st 5 days" (see below) shows stocks historically consolidated between 2/16 to 3/7 on the heels of strong January gains.Markets reflexively treat "Fed still set to hike" as a risk-off signal. However, since 1970, of the 14 Fed hiking cycles, only 3 saw equities fall as Fed was raising rates. Yes. This is shown below. The 3 cycles of "higher Fed funds = falling stocks" were (i) Fed Burns 1973-1974, (ii) Burns 1976-1978 and (iii) Powell 2022-now. Stocks rose during the 11 other Fed hike periods. That means 78% of the time, when Fed is hik...

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