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S&P 500 no longer fearful above 200D as our "unpopular opinion" of inflation undershoot now looking to be central case. Technology/FAANG arguably best upside 1H2023 story.

The S&P 500 is no longer "fearful" above the 200D

Friday (1/27/2023) is an important comeuppance day with two key pieces of incoming economic data:

  • Core PCE inflation (Dec) and
  • U Mich 1-yr inflation (Dec final).

Why is this day so pivotal? The incoming data will arguably determine which narrative best explains inflation and the course of the Fed for 2023 and beyond:

Consensus: inflation "sticky" so Fed needs to keep rates "higher for longer" to make sure inflation is "deader for surer" ala 1970...

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