Nov's PCE inflation release will highlight why 2023 is more opportunities, and less crisis. We see downside surprises to PCE inflation = less hawkish path forward for Fed

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Equities are struggling in December, capping what has proven to be a horrible year for equities. In our view, US core inflation has apexed (mid-2022) and now running at closer to 2%. But due to lags in how price-level series works (inflation is a price level), inflation will not be officially "2%" (year over year) until Sept 2023.

  • If inflation, on a forward basis, is running at 2%. Will markets and Fed wait until Sept 2023 to say inflation is running at 2%? Fed previously said "3 consecutive months" of improvement is a sign of progress. Annualized Core PCE inflation after Nov is released on 12/23:

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See the trend? The 3M annualized Core PCE inflation rate is down to 3%. It was >6% at the start of 2022 and ~8% in June 2022. So this is an utter collapse in the rate of inflation. And as we highlighted in prior commentaries, we see this as repeatable.The YE 2022 Core PCE inflation of 4.1% is 70bp below the YE 2022 4.8% Core PCE inflation forecast of Fed's Dec SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) by FOMC members. Think about that. 70bp.What if the Fed staffers made an inadvertent erro...

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