COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside "break" in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

We are shifting to a 4-day a week publication schedule:

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • SKIP THURSDAY
  • Friday NO REPORT (getting vaccine shot #2)

STRATEGY: ALERT!!!! USA cases could be “collapsing”
Our data science team, led by tireless Ken, just published the latest COVID-19 statistics.  And the improvement is so “anomalous” that I need to alert our clients about this:

– 7D delta is collapsing
– Wed eve vs 7D ago is -10,696

Two consecutive days now of massive declines in 7D ago case change.  The largest two day swing since December 2020.

COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel



Look at the absolute number of cases.

– this Wed was 59,983
– week ago Wed 70,679
– two weeks ago Wed 71,017
– three weeks ago Wed 64,168
– four weeks ago Wed 60,509

This Wed figure is a “downside” break — or the “leg down” we have been expecting as US vaccinations approach that 40% figure that led to a massive decline in Israel.


COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel

Even MI is posting big time declines.  Wut?  And look at NY, FL, PA, etc.  Big time declines.

– something big is happening


COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel




And recall, this would be consistent with reaching 40% vaccine penetration.

– In Israel, when this was happening, cases literally “fell off a cliff”
– If USA matches Israel, USA will be 8,500 cases per day by June 2021 from 60,000 currently

COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel





STRATEGY: If USA cases are falling “off a cliff” = Epicenter gonna run big!!!
If USA cases are falling, this is a “downside” breakout in the case data.  The case data has stalled in the past 3 weeks and equity markets have been equally mired.

But if USA cases are breaking to the downside, winners are:

– Epicenter aka Cyclicals –> Travel, Hotels, airlines, etc
– Epicenter proxies –> small-caps (IWM 0.06% ) and SPHB 0.41%
– Materials and Energy –> this trade will resurge XLE 0.27%  OIH -0.30%  KLXE -3.06%  CLF -1.14%  etc

Bottom line, this is a significant bullish equity development.  Recall, we saw a ’13’ buy signal for XLE recently (based on DeMark indicators) and this improvement in case trends would amplify that.

That said, the future is uncertain.  But it seems like a “downside” break in COVID-19 is taking place.

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