COVID-19 UPDATE: Death rates collapse when state vaccine penetration >33%. Even as equities favor "quality" trade, credit sticks with "cyclical" trade (hint, credit usually wins). Implies IWM $239

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STRATEGY: While equities do "quality" trade, credit stick with "cyclicals" (credit usually wins) and implies IWM should be $239 vs $223 currently...
COVID-19 trends have been fairly stable in the past few weeks (vs the sharper declines in cases seen earlier in the year) but as we wrote about in recent weeks, daily cases is not necessarily the important benchmark. Vaccinations are increasing and averaged 3.0 million this week. And many states are moving forward with re-openings. And as we noted earlier this week, it was a milestone to see CA announces a full re-opening by June 15th. Given that state has been so conservative, essentially the entire US will be open by mid-June.
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Current Trends -- COVID-19 cases:
- Daily cases 73,907 vs 71,277 7D ago, up +2,630
- 7D positivity rate 4.8% vs 5.0% 7D ago
- Hospitalized patients 39,840 up +7.2% vs 7D ago
- Daily deaths 722, down -18% vs 7D ago

Vaccinations ramping steadily
- avg 3.0 million this past week vs 2.9 million last week
- overall, 19.8% fully vaccinated, 33.5% 1-dose+ received
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A positive recent d...

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