COVID-19 UPDATE: 5 states MI, NJ, PA, NY, MN account for entire rise in cases. VIX falls to new cycle low = supportive of further rally

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  • STRATEGY: VIX falls to new cycle low = supportive of further rally
    Daily cases in the US have risen in the past few days (vs 7D ago).  Daily cases are 46,000 and the positivity rate is 4.5% (=good), so the rise is not taking cases to alarming levels.  But as the chart below shows, this upturn in cases has broken a long stretch of declining cases (since December).

    - daily cases are up +3,000 vs 7D ago
    - that rise is disappointing, but not a parabolic surge, akin to what has been seen in Europe

    The chart in this report is only accessible to members
    Source: Fundstrat and various State healthcare websites5 states are accounting for nearly that entire 3,000 case rise... none are Spring Break states...Collectively, 5 states are accounting for the bulk of the rise in cases over the past few weeks.  This is shown on the chart below:- 5 states MI, NJ, PA, NY, MN total +3,592 more daily cases, essentially the entire rise in daily cases.- TX and FL, both "Spring Break" states and states which lifted most restrictions, have seen cases fall sharply over the past 14 days.Why are cases rising in the NY tristate-ish area and the upper Midwest?  Is this due to a cold snap? Is this due ...
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