Democrats Move Close to Senate Control

It appears that the Democrats are on the verge of gaining control of the Senate with the two victories in Georgia and the swearing in of Vice President Harris on January 20.  The two Georgia victories will bring the Senate count to 50/50, and under the rules of the Senate the Vice President, who sits as Senate President, breaks all tie votes.

A tied Senate gives enormous power to each individual Senator as the loss of one vote by the majority party requires them to seek votes from the minority party.  It can lead to a higher level of bipartisanship as coalitions are more likely to be formed with moderates having considerable leverage,  While Joe Manchin of West Virginia is the most well known moderate Democrat, Arizona now has two moderate Democratic Senators: newly elected Mark Kelly and Kysten Sinema who won in 2018.  Montana which has become more Repubican in recent elections continues to have a Democratic Senator, Jon Tester and he will need to watch his votes and avoid being labeled as a supporter of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Delaware’s Chris Coons has been a bipartisan bridge builder over the last few years.

One word of caution is that a 50/50 Senate means that the death of a Senator can change control of the Senate.  If a Democratic Senator from a state with a Republican Governor dies the new Republican appointed Senator would switch the line up to 51/49. 

If the trend holds and Democrats take control of the Senate it will make life easier for the first two years of the Biden Administration, but won’t lead to a flood of progressive legislation.

The most immediate benefit to Biden will be the ability to get his cabinet picks approved without having to negotiate with Mitch McConnell and the Republicans.  Even the more moderate Democrats are unlikely to object to cabinet choices.  It will also expedite consideration of judges to the federal bench and likely put pressure on 82 year old Justice Stephen Breyer to retire during this two year window of Democratic control.  Both Democrats and Republicans have taken steps to eliminate the filibuster for all administrative and judicial nominations, therefore there can be no filibusters of Biden’s nominees.

While I don’t see big changes in tax policy or the Green New Deal, I think there will be a early push for a large Covid Stimulus Bill, a significant infrastructure program, and immigration reform,  Every Democrat I talk to says that the biggest mistake made in the Obama Administration was not acting on immigration when Democrats controlled Congress.  In the spring the Supreme Court will be handing down the ACA case, and the Democratic Congress and Biden Administration are likely to reform the ACA to meet the Court’s decision but also expand the programs.

The most important aspect of Senate control is that the Majority Leader makes the decision on what matters come before the Senate.  Leader McConnell famously never scheduled the nomination of Merrick Garland to become a Justice of the Supreme Court, and last year refused to have a stand alone vote on the $2000 stimulus check.  The decision on what matters come before the Senate will be made by Leader Schumer after January 20th.

-Tom Block

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