COVID-19 UPDATE: 105 million passengers flown since 4/1/2020, and only 1,600 "infected flying" -- being on an airplane is 20X safer than walking the streets of NYC.

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HEADS UP: There will be no updates Friday and no updates next Monday. I will be getting surgery to repair my ACL on 10/22 and will be recovering on those dates. 

STRATEGY: The things we are "afraid of" are proving to be far saferWhile COVID-19 case trends are worsening in the US and even worse in Europe, not all is negative regarding COVID. In this commentary, we highlight two things that are actually far better than expected. First, we are now starting to lean towards measuring COVID-19 waves in the US via the level of hospitalizations and the rate new cases are seeing hospitalizations. As we discuss below, in wave 1 and wave 2, the total hospitalized peaked at ~59,000 vs 37,000 currently. Moreover, several states saw hospitalized per 1mm exceed 300. In wave 1, it was NY, NJ, CT, MA and in wave 2, it was FL, AZ, TX. In wave 3, only South Dakota is there. So, wave 3 seems very muted. So far. Second, it seems many things we were “afraid of” are not as bad as feared. In particular, we look at airline travel and COVID-19 spread. Here is a way to look at it. Since April 1, the TSA has processed 105 million passengers to travel on a flight. So, think of this as 105 million interactions. Of this...

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