Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
Daily COVID-19 data is out and daily cases were 31,780 which is actually higher than 7D ago. Last week was the week post-Labor Day holiday so there can be some funky week-over-week comparisons. And because this might raise concerns about the trend in cases, we decided to highlight the trends in hospitalizations. The metric we are using is the “number currently hospitalized” and is based on all 50 states.
Net hospitalizations at 29,000 are down from 60,000 in late July and nearly matching the lowest levels…
But before one starts to worry that COVID-19 is not in retreat, take a look at current COVID-19 hospitalizations. This figure stands at 29,796 which is well off the highs of ~60,000 in late July and nearly matching the all-time cycle low of 27,114 from 6/15/2020.
– in other words, COVID-19 hospitalizations are falling pretty rapidly at the moment.
– there is no “flat line” that seems to be happening with daily cases.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
But this second chart makes the pattern more clear. This is the 7D change in hospitalizations. If this figure is red, people are getting “discharged” and if it is rising, more people are flowing into hospitals.
– Since late July, more people have left hospitals than have been admitted
– So while US cases surged in July, the number of hospitalized was actually falling
– This should be a leading indicator for US daily deaths, which have been steadily falling (see our recent comments on that)
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
One of the biggest questions at the back of my mind is what a reasonable framework for forecasting COVID-19 is as we enter the key flu season. COVID-19 is mysterious and very unpredictable, so there is no basis for anyone to have a strong view one way or another. There are a lot of doom forecasters, who think the combination of: COVID-19 + flu = twin pandemic. And not to denigrate these dark forecasts, but the path of this disease has not followed anybody’s worst case scenario (yet).
Source: KSBY.com
Many of our clients are aware of our past commentary on this. The Northern flu season typically follows the flu season of the Southern hemisphere (usually April to September) and even the vaccines administered in the US are based on the varietals seen in the Southern flu season. The 2020 Southern flu season has been unusually mild — extremely — likely a result of the hygienic and social distance measures stemming from COVID-19 mitigation. So, this is our base case. The 2020 flu season will likely be milder than 2019. But other factors could make COVID-19 worse — back to school, virus mutation, vaccine errors, hospital resource usage, etc. This is why you should tune into this webinar this Friday.
Tune into our webinar this Friday at 3:30pm ET with IHME head science researcher, Christopher Murray…
But the future is uncertain. And we wanted to get the perspective of one of the leading COVID-19 healthcare researchers. We are hosting a webinar with one of the founders of IHME (IHME website healthdata.org), you may know as healthdata.org, and is one of the forecasters for COVID-19 used by the White House. We will be speaking with Christopher J.L. Murray who is the lead researcher there. FYI, the IHME is forecasting a brutal flu season, with daily deaths rising to as much as 12,000 per day in December (peaked at ~2,000 in April 2020).
– this Friday at 3:30pm ET.
– the time is odd but Murray of IHME is based on the West Coast
Similar to our broader work on COVID-19, we want to make this available to the public, so you are welcome to share this webinar invitation (except not to CNN). The details of this webinar are below:
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Details and Specifics
Date: Friday, September 18th, 2020
Time: 3:30 pm Eastern Time
Duration: 45-60 minutes (including live Q&A)
Link –> Click here to register
- Registration is required to receive dial-in details.
- You will receive a copy of the presentation before the Webinar. The call will be accessible via computer, phone or both. If you login, you can view the presentation during the Webinar. If you call in only, we recommend having a copy on hand if possible.
- To request a replay of the call, please email inquiry@fsinsight.com.
Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us at (212) 293-7140 or email inquiry@fsinsight.com.
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POINT 1: US daily 31,780, up +4,580 vs 7D ago… Tennessee sees 3X in cases…
Daily cases came in at 31,780 Monday, which is +4,580 vs 7D ago. This is a break in the recent pattern, to the extent that instead of seeing daily cases down vs 7D ago, we are seeing a rise for Monday. It is too early to make a call based on 1-day’s worth of data.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project
Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average. As shown below, Monday’s rise in daily cases vs 7D ago is a reversal of the steady declines seen over the past few weeks.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
But the states with the significant increase are TN, PA and TX. Texas is relatively mild. PA is due to the low number of cases reported on Sunday.
– But the rise in TN could stem from back to school
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
And with lower hospitalizations, we see fewer mortalities. In fact, take a look at the scatter chart below comparing total cases and total deaths by state. As you can see, NY and NJ saw a steep curve with high mortality.
– In fact, total deaths in CA and TX are similar to NJ
– But cases in CA and TX are 3.5X-4X that of NJ
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project
POINT 2: Younger employees not so good at “work from home” + Schools key…
JPMorgan has been encouraging its senior team to return to the offices. JPMorgan is not alone. One of my good friends in London has been working out of his sovereign fund’s office every other week. So, the workforce is coming back to the offices. And as we have written about last week, NYC returning to normal is a particularly big deal, because of the city’s central role in:
– Media
– Culture
– Arts
– Financial markets
– even food trends
Hence, NYC is gradually coming back to a pre-COVID routine.
This Bloomberg article below is interesting because Jamie Dimon also speaks to the lower levels of productivity of its younger employees. And this effect was greatest on Monday and Friday weekdays. And in his words, “creative combustion” has taken a hit.
– this is the downside of work from home
– unproductive employees can get away with working less
– on the other hand, firms that manage costs diligently can massively overhaul their operations
– we think this latter effect will be a wave of productivity gains for US companies in coming quarters
– thus, we see a big upside to EPS in 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
Encouraging to see NYC Mayor DeBlasio forging ahead with opening schools –> without open schools, there is no return to work…
One of the positive efforts by the NYC Mayor is his moving ahead with school reopening. While COVID-19 remains deadly and dangerous, if the City has a mitigation and contact tracing plan in place, the risks to students and teachers can be mitigated. NYC is one of the hardest hit cities in the nation and with an estimated 20% of the population previously infected, the city is arguably closest to “infection break point”
– by opening schools, NYC can also allow its workers to return to their offices
https://nypost.com/2020/09/14/de-blasio-forges-ahead-with-school-reopening-plan-amid-protests/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp
POINT 3: Calm before the (“flu season”) storm? IHME “scary” forecast vs Southern hemisphere (“non-existent”)
IHME Webinar this Friday…
Reminder, we are hosting Christopher J.L. Murray, the head researcher from the IHME (IHME website healthdata.org) and what makes their work unique are their forecasts for the path of COVID-19:
– infections
– daily cases
– hospitalizations
– deaths
– forecasts can include scenarios such as masks mandate, easing, etc.
We have admired the work of IHME and have used their projections in many of our COVID-19 commentaries. And we have found their models around infections (vs detected cases) useful.
IHME is forecasting a brutal flu season… 1.8 million infections daily if restrictions ease…
The IHME forecasts daily infections, not confirmed cases (which are detected infections) and according to their model:
– current, daily infections are ~145,000 per day
– daily confirmed cases ~30,000 per day, so 5X more infections vs confirmed
As shown below, the IHME forecasts a massive surge in cases during flu season:
– baseline projection is infections surge to 400,000 per day, or ~3X compared to today
– with restrictions easing, this daily infection surges to 1.8 million
– in March, at the peak of COVID-19 infections, daily infections ~300,000 per day
So, the baseline and the “easing” forecast show US infections blowing past the prior peak.
Source: IHME
Their forecasts for deaths are even direr. Their projections for daily deaths are shown below:
– easing restrictions, daily deaths reach 12,000 per day
– the baseline is daily deaths peak at 3,000 per day
– in March/April at the height of COVID-19 USA, daily deaths peaked at 2,500
So this is a projection of a massive increase in daily deaths.
Source: IHME
In short, IHME is forecasting a brutal flu season.
By contrast, the Southern hemisphere had a mild flu season…
There have been many recent articles about the unusually mild flu season (we wrote about this a few weeks ago) and the most recent is from economist.com. The title of their article?
– “The southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020”
Source: Economist.com
But their charts really speak for themselves. The flu season in these 6 nations has been extremely mild.
– Why?
– this likely results from the mitigation steps associated with COVID-19 reducing the R0 of the flu season.
– hopefully, everyone is getting their flu shot now
Source: Economist.com
