COVID-19 UPDATE: Pretty soon, the focus will be on "level" of cases not "change" in case trends.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

STRATEGY: Markets not convinced economy regaining footing...This has been a very good week for US COVID-19 case data.  After all, trends this week cement that the trend is downwards for organic case growth.  But we also think that markets will start to shift their thinking about COVID-19 from "change in cases" to "level of cases."  That is, we will start to focus more on the question of "when is COVID-19 under control" in the US.The benchmark many cite is a positivity rate <10%, but the current rate is 6.5% and it doesn't seem like COVID-19 is under control.  We think a better measure is to look at daily cases per 1mm residents -- it is currently ~120 per 1mm (40,000 per day).  Europe did not open until daily cases 30-50 per 1mm, which in the US equivalent is 9,900 to 16,500.- so cases need to fall another 60% from here --> at this pace of change, we could be there in a few weeks- only 10 states have <50 cases per 1mm and only 4 <30 per 1mm (NY, VT, ME, NH)- only 21% of counties have <50 cases per 1mm, or 1/5 of the US has COVID-19 under control.So the US has a ways to go.  But the interesting thing is the cases are falling so rapidly, we could see these levels in a few w...
A FSI Macro, or FSI Pro subscription is required in order to access this content.

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 15%

    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      The Complete Package
      FSI Macro + FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      249
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      from
      $
      199
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
      Webinars and Media
      Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events.
      We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
      Research
      Weekdays
      The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
      On market events
      These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
      Daily
      Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
      Weekly
      Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
      Weekly
      Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
      Earnings season
      A multi-faceted update of earnings developments.
      Updated bi-weekly
      Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
      Stock Lists
      Updated quarterly
      Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.
      Updated monthly
      A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.
      Updated monthly
      Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.
      And More!
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the macro research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      99
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
      Webinars and Media
      Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
      Weekly
      Digestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
      Research
      Daily
      Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
      Intra month
      Hear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.
      Weekly
      From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
      Weekly
      A must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.
      Weekly
      Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
      Intra-month
      Our consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.
      And More!
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the crypto research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)