COVID-19 UPDATE: F-CAT >80% prob TX already peaked, >60% AZ and >50% FL... CA still parabolic

Equity markets surged to start the week, and at first glance, one could say the weekend developments were better than expected, and thus, on the margin, risk on for markets.  This is becoming a pattern, where the absence of "bad" or even catastrophic news is resulting in a general upwards drift in markets.  And the incoming economic data remains better than expected -- a huge beat on June ISM Services at 57.1 vs 50.2 expected.  Both PMIs (manufacturing and services) are solidly back >50 and affirming the US economy has bottomed.Taking a step back, when economy has bottomed, and stocks behave with an "underlying bid," we see this an overall constructive environment and one that allows stocks to surprise to the upside.  I still find it curious that many market skeptics cite the "high P/E" as a reason for caution.  At the bottom of a market cycle (which we are in) and when earnings are depressed, P/E is naturally going to be stratospherically high--that was the case in 2009 as well.And there remain a few "binary" events that could cause the market to abruptly re-position:- Healthcare cure or vaccine developed- FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, could see cases rollover and mark the apex of current wave in US pandemic.>80% chance Texas is past the peak...In our...

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