COVID-19 UPDATE: COVID-19 is DECLINING per IHME model -- "daily infections" down 72% to 73k/day from 260k/day at the peak in late March Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
ALERT: Equity markets are closed Friday, July 3rd, due to the US Independence Day holiday. So we do not plan to publish an update Thursday eve/Friday am. Happy 4th!!
We got some incrementally positive news today from Pfizer and BioNTech, which are working jointly on a vaccine. Their first clinical trial shows positive results and specifically, those receiving this vaccine showed high levels of neutralizing antibodies (1.8-2.8X that of recovered patients). This development is adding to the Fauci belief that some type of commercial COVID-19 vaccine will be available in early 2021. And if this is the case, the pathway to putting COVID-19 behind is visible.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb was on CNBC this morning, and he commented that he believes the "infection rate" is 10X the "case confirmed" rate. That is, he believes the US has 400,000-500,000 new infections per day, but only 44,000 are "detected" and "confirmed" -- a really key suggestion, because this has implications for disease prevalence (closer to the infection break point), but also regarding disease severity (hospitalization rates are far lower, if correct). Basically, there are:
- infections: people who contract COVID-19
- cases: people who show symptoms
- detected: people confirmed positive by PCR test
The datasets we use are based upon "detected" cases, or confirmed positive by a PCR test. This is how the US mostly tracks COVID-19, although some states include serology tests in the total, which are based on antibodies and show past infections.
IHME has a model for infections, a leading indicator for cases, then detected...
The Institute for Health and Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the entity with a widely used COVID-19 forecast model, has a forecast for "infections" COVID-19 is shown on the left.
- per IHME, infections peaked on 3/29/2020 at 260,000 and currently 73,000
- infections daily are down 72% from its peak
- detected cases since then is up from 19,000 to 44,000
Thus, from an "infected" perspective, we are well past the peak on COVID-19. This is food for thought. We discuss this in greater detail below.


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