COVID-19 UPDATE: USA cases see new high, not 2nd wave, but an F-CAT wave (FL, CA, AZ, TX). Stocks are "consolidating" and we do not view this as a top.

COVID-19 confirmed cases surged again on Wednesday, rising +5,083 to a new high of 38,296.  I think it is important to appreciate this surge is not really a second wave, but really a surge in cases from states which have seen a surge in cases since early June.  One way to see is the chart below, creating 3 composites for the US daily cases:

- NY/NJ/CT which was the original epicenter
- F-CAT (Florida, CA, AZ and TX) which as we wrote about, did see imported cases which are now community transmission
- Rest of 43 states.

Looked at this way, the NY tristate has crushed downwards case growth.  But F-CAT is seeing a parabolic rise.  And as we have commented in the past few weeks, we believe the "accelerant" is the ongoing nationwide protests, more so than the re-opening of the states.


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project

But this is not the only explanation.  I think the South is getting hit with a quadfecta:
 
- “indoor season” as it gets so hot, people go inside
- Higher Latino/Black/minority share (vitamin D)
- Spillover from Latin America (had to quantify)
- BLM movement is gasoline to spread

And this part of the country was forced to "lockdown" for two months in March-April while experiencing little of the horror seen in NY/NJ/CT.  Thus, this "inexperience" with the trauma of COVID-19 is likely another factor.  Americans may not feel the need to be as diligent about social distance and PPE as a result.  So, in fairness, to an extent, I understand why many Americans might have let their guard down regarding COVID-19.  And also, I am really starting to see the resistance to the use of masks as well.  Now as the number of cases soars, and as mayors and Governors start raising the alarm, and as residents start to personally know of cases/hospitalizations/deaths, we think this may bring on a wave of diligence.  I am saying this, but I am only making an observation.  

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