COVID-19 UPDATE: Cases are rising in US and the simplest policy solution is requiring masks. Epicenter stocks --> Buy for the "skepticism" and stay for the "growth" -- 32 stocks

Daily cases are up again today in the US, with the same 4 states accounting for the bulk of cases: 

- CA  +4,084
- TX  +3,516
- FL   +3,207
- AZ  +2,519

These 4 states have known increases and sustained rises.  We do not think the states need to roll back the eased restrictions.  Foremost, because the case surge timeline fits with the nationwide protests more than it does with the easing of state restrictions.  Moreover, a simple policy response could mitigate transmission -- requiring masks.  The studies below show that with as little as 60% compliance, the R0 drops below 1.0 and Asia typically sees 80% compliance with mask usage.  Several studies even suggest masks alone, without sanitizer, to achieve this (see commentary below).


And as we commented yesterday, TX and FL took some "course correction" steps yesterday, including the use of masks.  Today, California took the same step, CA Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an order that requires citizens to wear masks in public.  These are wise steps.  I know a mask is intrusive, and honestly uncomfortable on a hot day, but there is growing science showing that masks really slow the spread.   In this commentary, we highlight 5 studies which show how effective masks can be to slow COVID-19 transmission.  In one instance, an infected passenger flew from China to Toronto and did not infect a single passenger or crewmember on that flight, as he wore a mask during the trip.

The point we are making is that mitigation steps, like requiring masks can enable the safe re-opening of the US economy.  And allow more "V"s to appear throughout the economy.  It is encouraging to see more states and cities require masks and this seems to be gaining momentum.  In fact, our data science team, led by tireless Ken, will try to compile a list in a future update.

And I don't think states are going to necessarily face a relentless surge in cases.  Arkansas is the prime example.  The state never issued shelter-at-home restrictions, so the state largely remained opened.  But the state began experiencing a surge in cases starting in mid-May (which as our clients know, we have flagged for some time). And frankly, those case rises looked parabolic (see below).

- But since 6/12, Arkansas has seen a steady decline in reported cases and hospitalizations peaked on 6/10
- Again, note how hospitalizations and cases tend to move in tandem.

So Arkansas looks like the case surge has peaked and without requiring shelter at home restrictions.  The state, however, is trying to encourage greater mask use -- but it is not currently required in the state, yet.  It looks like AR Governor Asa Hutchinson is considering this, and Fayetteville City Council (city in the state) passed an ordinance requiring masks.

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