COVID-19 UPDATE: Senate passes revised PPP = improvement. S&P 500 clears 76% retracement, next level all-time highs = "less barbell"

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.

The S&P 500 reached new cycle highs today, closing at 3,122.87, the highest close post-COVID-19 and also clearing a key 76% retracement level (3,109.93).  The next real battle line, as shown below, is 3,393.52, or all-time highs.  The weakening of USD (past week), solid recovery in oil, further fall in VIX point to a growing constellation of financial indicators confirming the rise in equity prices.  And given the mountain of dry power ($5T money market + $2T private equity + $1T corp net raise), there is a lot of capital that could be buying corporate equities if the economic recovery gains traction.  Hence, the market, in our view, remains in the hands of buyers.  

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Tonight, the Senate passed a bill easing restrictions and essentially improving the PPP program.  Under the bill, small biz only needs to spend 60% on payroll (75% prior) and could use funds for six months (vs 2 months).  And per CNBC, the deadline to rehire has been extended past June 30th and could get loan forgi...

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