COVID-19 UPDATE: USA daily cases rise to 22,610 (+2,868, +14.5%) as testing rises +16%. Interest burden of $3.6T stimulus plan --> $24 billion/year or 0.1% of GDP. Yup. It's almost "free"

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.


There are widespread signs of a "return to normalcy" from stories of crowds in Indiana to 41% of homes sold in the past 4 weeks seeing bidding wars, to China reporting auto SAAR is back to pre-crisis levels.  Of course, as restrictions, movement increases, and the risk of a wave of new infections is what keeps anyone wary.  The future remains uncertain, and thus, we are not confident in saying a second wave cannot happen -- but the good news, there has yet to be a second wave in re-opened economies, either in Europe (16 nations) or the US (basically all 50 eased to some extent).

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Financial markets have certainly moved far faster than the economic data has moved. This always happens at the trough of an economic cycle.  And for those who rely on fundamental visibility to make investment decisions, the rise in stocks since mid-March would appear to be completely disconnected from reality.  We have written about how this happens at every trough and 2009 had a similar lack of visibility from March to Nov 2009 (even Warren ...

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