COVID-19 UPDATE: NYC breakthrough as new cases 1,613, 78% below peak. Could we now be in the "decline phase" of COVID? Consumer confidence shockingly high = Good. OW Discretionary stocks.

Heads up: We are hosting a conference on Friday to discuss Strategy post "re-start" with our entire team.  Details forthcoming.

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.

Today marks a milestone for COVID-19. We may now be officially in the "decline" phase of the Healthcare crisis.  That is, we have seen COVID-19 move from exponential --> linear (flattening) --> decline (falling cases).  Why we think we are in the decline phase?  Two things happened in the past 24 hours (hopefully it is not transitory): - first, NYC reported a breakthrough in COVID-19 case count at 1,613, the first sub-2K day in more than 30 days and now 78% off peak (recall our 75% benchmark, which we acknowledge is arbitrary). - second, for the first time, >50% of the US counties (based on population) have cases 50% or more off peak (31% with 75% off peak).  This means, half of the US is further in the "decline phase." The fact we are in the decline on the healthcare side does not really mean this tragedy is over.  Hardly.  Healthcare workers and hos...

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