COVID-19 update: NY Gov. Cuomo advances the timeline to re-open. Testing 3x = cases up. HY issuance 2nd strongest week ever Array ( [cookie] => f5fd92-e22639-fa7c92-d9b71b-181f74 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 565831 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
The developments over the weekend have been mostly positive. Most notably, it looks like the improvements for NY state have been sustained sufficiently for Gov Cuomo to mention that some parts of the state may open after May 15th. This is quite a milestone. Now the phased opening would be for manufacturing and construction and more likely in Upstate and Central NY. Not NYC at this time. NYC with >18,000 cases per 1mm residents did 3X worse than Lombardy, Italy (see chart below). Recall, Italy was the first developed nation to see a COVID-19 outbreak, and the northern region was overwhelmed. Yet, NYC managed to see confirmed case prevalence 3X worse than Lombardy.
But the other development over the past few days has been a significant increase in US testing to about 300,000 per day, 3X what it was just a week ago. And this figure could surge in the coming weeks as more testing capabilities and capacity are added. But the consequence of this is "confirmed cases" are surging. Over the weekend, the US reported 35,780 net new cases (4/25/2020) which exceed the 34,298 high on 4/10/2020.
We had several clients email over the weekend asking if a new wave of cases is taking place. But as we discuss below, this surge is due to 3X rise in tests, and in fact, NY state accounts for almost half of the surge. And NY is certainly not getting worse, because Gov. Cuomo is advancing the timeline.
And as for equity markets, we continue to believe HY is a leading indicator of risk appetite. HY managed to price $20.6 billion in bonds last week (2nd highest EVER for that market) and saw $2.2 billion of inflows. All of this despite the catastrophic crash in May WTI futures (20% of HY is energy). The fact that HY was only modestly "nicked" by the oil armageddon should be a clue.
We believe HY is underscoring the fact that the balance of power in risky assets, and stocks, has shifted into the hands of buyers ("half full"). And the market is telling us that stocks/EPS recovery likely follows a path that is a lot steeper than consensus expects (we will have more insights over the coming week).
POINT #1: Governor Cuomo looks like he is advancing timeline to re-open NY State to sometime after May 15th...
Governor Cuomo even advanced the timetable to re-open NY state, sometime after May 15th with upstate and central NY first
In his press briefing today, Governor Cuomo talked about how NY state continues to make good progress, sufficiently, actually that the state is somewhat advancing the timeline to re-open NY state. Cuomo advanced the timetable for a phase re-opening of NY state, to sometime after mid-May with Upstate and Central opening before NYC.
- the first phase is to resume construction and manufacturing jobs.
- the second phase, open additional "essential businesses"
- 14 days would separate the two.
- Schools would need to re-open if NY is going to have large-scale re-opening. Schools may have "summer sessions" to make up for the lost time.
In each case, the organizations/entities need to create mitigation plans that meet the state requirements (not yet set).
New York state cases surged recently, not really due to a "new outbreak" but expanded testing... 3X increased testing past 5 days
Over the weekend, we saw some big increases in cases reported by NY state. Below, cases surged to 10,553 on 4/25/2020, following 5 consecutive days of higher reported cases (4,178 on 4/21/2020, see below). And then on 4/26/2020, this figure fell to 5,902. If methodology and testing capacity and timing were all constant, this would be an alarming jump.
Become a Member To Access FS Insight Research
FS Insight gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.
What's included in your FSI Membership?
Thomas J. Lee
Head of Research
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
First Word The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis. |
|||||||
Intraday Alerts These are released periodically after crucial market developments. |
Real-Time | |||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Macro Minute Video Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events. |
|||||||
Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! |
Yearly | |||||||
Granny Shots Webinars | ||||||||
CEO Interview Webinars | Quarterly | |||||||
Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
Allocation Tools |
"Super Granny" Shots Stock List Granny Shots we expect to tactically outperform and underperform. |
|||||||
Granny Shots Stock List Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500. |
||||||||
Sector Allocation A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk. |
||||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
Real-Time |
Mark L. Newton
Head of Technical Strategy
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |
|||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |
|||||||
Live Technical Analysis | ||||||||
Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! |
Yearly | |||||||
Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
Allocation Tools |
Newton's Upticks Stock List Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500. |
|||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
L. Thomas Block
Washington Policy Strategy
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
US Policy Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street. |
|||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
Real-Time |
Sean Farrell & Crypto Team
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
Market Update Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news. |
|||||||
Weekly Strategy Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Funding Fridays Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested! |
||||||||
Crypto Concepts We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. |
||||||||
Liquid Ventures A recurring research note focused on delivering unique insights into high-risk investment opportunities within the crypto ecosystem, primarily centered on early-stage or small-cap tokens. |
||||||||
Deep Research We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. |
Quarterly | |||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Outlook Webinars Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms. |
Yearly | ||||||
Crypto Comments |
Daily Technical Strategy From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge. |
|||||||
Allocation Tools |
Crypto Core Strategy A powerful tool designed to help crypto investors build a crypto portfolio that outperforms the industry’s king – bitcoin – regardless of market conditions. |
|||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
Real-Time |
FS Insight Research Team
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports | First to Market | |||||||
*Earnings Daily This note provides investors with a myriad of useful metrics to measure the progress of earnings season |
||||||||
Signal From Noise Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective. |
||||||||
Community Questions We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals! |
||||||||
FS Insight Academy Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way. |
||||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Free Macro Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. |
Quarterly | ||||||
Free Crypto Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. |
Quarterly |
*Daily reporting during each quarterly earnings season.