COVID-19 UPDATE, NYC and NY state tracking to inflection next week, including 'peak deaths' within next 7-10 days

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POINT #1: Encouraging that NYC and NY State peak of crisis may be within 7-10 days...
The latest NYC update (from this evening) is quite encouraging.  Manhattan is actually showing a slight decrease in new cases to 376, even as statewide testing has increased.  There is some data that shows "test by date of specimen capture" but it seems lumpy.  But on a preliminary basis, it reinforces that the "peak burning crisis" is likely in the rearview mirror for NYC.  The second half of the chart below also shows that Queens, while still flaring, is not surging to new highs.

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Cases in NYC overall were exactly 4,000 for 4/2/2020...If you examine the chart below, you can see 4,000 is about the same level for the past 9 days.  This is really quite a linear outcome.  Now, someone might suggest that testing capacity is capped in NYC, so we only see 4,000 or so positives.  Or they are only testing at the hospitals. - if this was the ca...

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