COVID-19 UPDATE: Moderna trial results suggest vaccine here much sooner. Looking at 1Q2020, March monthly EPS was likely $5.50 (vs $14 Jan/Feb). Revising 2020 S&P 500 EPS to $50 ($110 prior) but keeping 2021 at $193.

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.There were two notable positive developments in this COVID-19 crisis today.  First, is the Moderna announcement of the initial success of its mRNA trial, with the first 8 recipients of the vaccine showing high levels of antibodies, enough to prevent cell infection and second, the surprise easing of restrictions by California, fairly broad including many retailers, churches and including sports by June 1 (NY Gov Cuomo also encouraged sports teams to consider opening in NY). Whether states have sufficient health metrics to justify re-opening is becoming secondary to the desire of citizens to emerge from their shelters (and nobody wants the goalposts moved).According to the WHO, there are 8 vaccines in clinical evaluation today (including Moderna) and 110 in preclinical evaluation.  This is 118 shots at creating a vaccine.  That is a lot of research and momentum and really raises the prospects of a vaccine arriving sooner than the "12-18 months" guidance given by many health experts.  This is positive.But we co...

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