If IWM closes BELOW $222.59, another affirmation that small-caps establishing tradeable low

STRATEGY: If IWM closes below $222.59, today is a sequential ‘9’ on DeMark = good
I am sending out an alert today, because the stock market has been ultra reactive to news and headlines lately.  And the underlying framework remains positive, despite the ‘noisy tape’

In fact, today, I am watching IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF, very closely.  Why?


The daily DeMark count on IWM (using version V1b) is potentially a ‘sequential 9’ count today.

– in DM analysis, a ‘9’ can signal exhaustion of trend
– hence, a ‘9’ could be a place for buyers to step in (counter-trend system)
– to be a ‘9’ today, IWM needs to close below $222.59, which is the close 4 bars prior


STRATEGY: If this is indeed a true ‘9’, IWM needs to trade higher within 4 further bars.  Meaning, by Wednesday next week, a rally needs to start, otherwise, this is a failed signal

If IWM closes BELOW $222.59, another affirmation that small-caps establishing tradeable low




By the way, the 30 minute chart already has posted a ‘sequential 9’ as indicated below.  So the smaller fractal is showing buyers stepping in. 

– Now we are watching whether the bigger fractal, the daily, can confirm what we are seeing on the 30-minute chart

If IWM closes BELOW $222.59, another affirmation that small-caps establishing tradeable low


…If CPI is to be believed, why is the 10-year shrugging it off?
Lastly, while investors have talked about inflation and inflationary fears, those ‘fears’ were confirmed by the big CPI number today.

But here is my question:

– If CPI print is real, why is the US 10-year barely moving?
– Like the 10Y is sort of yawning


If IWM closes BELOW $222.59, another affirmation that small-caps establishing tradeable low

Source: https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1392483500884963334?s=20


BOTTOM LINE: We remain positive on equities, and see signs of capitulation.  Our top 3 sectors remain:

– Energy, Materials and Financials –> XLE0.07%  XLB0.07%  XLF-0.02%
– We are cautious on Technology and recommend using strength to reduce –> XLK0.44%  QQQ-0.58%  

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