January on track for >3% gain, solidifying 2024 to be positive (>92% probability) and suggests our 5,200 target might be low.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: Even more important than FOMC or even macro this week is the Wed close.  Jan is on track to be positive and it supports our case for 5200 or even much higher.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:37).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

This week is a critical week given the Treasury announcements, FOMC, critical macro and the heaviest week of 4Q23 EPS season. But arguably the singular most important data point this week will be (Wednesday) today's S&P 500 close and this needs to be above 4,769. At the moment, the S&P 500 is on track for >+3% YTD gain.

We previously wrote about how the full year tends to play out in January and investors tend to look at 3 measures. But the key one of all is the January 31 close:- Santa clause (last 5 days + 1st 2 days) -0.88%, bad omen- Rule of 1st 5 days -0.13% <-- we explained why a mulligan- Jan gain +3.25% That latter one is key. Over past 74 years, when prior year >+15% (n=28) and Jan positive (n=13):- Full year return median +16%- Full year return is positive 92% of the time- only exception was 2018 In 2018, the Fed was in autopilot tightening mode and was overtightening. This is not the case today, hopefully. Wed FOMC ...

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