Alert

INTRADAY ALERT: Nov jobs report basically in-line, not enough to sway Fed hawkish into Dec FOMC.

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The Nov jobs report released this am is overall benign with slightly more jobs added (+199k vs Street +185k) and details as well with unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% (vs 3.9% expected) or avg hourly earnings +4% YoY (inline).

The rise in jobs vs October has a lot to do with the strikes ending for UAW and screenwriters. And to me, it does not necessarily feel like the US job market has suddenly strengthened in the past month. The most important question is how this affects the Fed thinking into the December FOMC meeting on 12/13. This details of this jobs report does not seem like it will push the Fed to the hawkish side. From this perspective, it seems like a benign report. Interest rates did initially surge on this and have since given up some of those gains. Rates surged to 4.28% and have backed off to 4.214%. While this is above the levels of a few days ago, this seems to be bleeding lower from that initial surge. Of course, we need to keep on eye on that. The overall incoming data this week continues to speak about the weakening of inflationary pressures. The Manheim Used Vehicle Index Nov Final was released yeste...

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