INTRADAY ALERT: Sept CPI in-line except for a boggling +51% rise in hotel CPI. Buy this dip as Sept CPI is good enough to keep Fed on pause

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This intraday alert will replace tomorrow morning's First Word (10/13) and tonight's Macro Minute Video (10/12)

September CPI, released this morning, was largely in line with Core CPI coming in at +0.32% vs Street of +0.30 and last month's +0.28%. The largest contributor to the rise in Sept Core CPI was shelter. And more specifically, "lodging away from home" which is hotel stays.

Hotels CPI rose +4.21% MoM, or a 51% annualized rate. Does anyone really think hotel prices from at a 51% annualized rate in the month of September? This doesn't make sense. August Hotel CPI was -3.59%, or an annualized decline of -43%. That did not make much sense either. So, to us, this seems to be a case of bad seasonal adjustment. If we net the two months, the annualized Hotel CPI is +0.31% or +3.8% YoY. Hotel CPI accounted for +0.10% of the +0.32% rise in Core CPI. This is a huge contribution from a single line item. Using data from Trivago, the spike in hotel rates is primarily NYC which saw a +30% surge in September. Why did NYC spike suddenly this year? Is this related to the UN General Assembly? That happens every year. Is this related to the influx of migrants into NYC? Not entirely clear. Outside of Hotels, the rest of the CPI report was in line...
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