The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members


Due to a travel disruption there will be no macro minute video 8/29.

Barring a stupendous rally in the next 2 days (could happen), August will end up a down month for equities. The extended choppiness of August has turned many investors bearish, with many believing the highs for 2023 were made in July 2023. As many of our clients know, we warned of the chop to come in August (see our note from July 31) and Wednesday last week (8/22), we timidly went back to "risk on" on the open Wednesday. Consensus is now warning that equity markets could be soft in September. But we have 4 reasons to expect the exact opposite and the S&P 500 could gain 2%-3%:

First, we expect incoming macro data over the next week and few months to show a significant slowdown in inflationary pressures -- both for core inflation and for labor markets. This week is a particularly heavy data week as we are still expecting July PCE and the August jobs report. July JOLTS (job openings) was a huge downside reading with 8.8 million vs 9.5 million consensus. And the prior months was revised downwards by 417k, the largest ever monthly negative revision. The details show the jobs market has weakened significantly, and...

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