Feb "payback" giving way to March + April "buy the dip" as we enter best 8 weeks. EPS revisions support OW Tech/FAANG here. Ex-FAANG S&P 500 P/E is 14.8X, hardly demanding

S&P 500 ended February down ~2% and the weakness has caused many investors to return to full "bear" mode. The fact that investors are so quick to flip cautious is a sign that sentiment still leans bearish -- think about that. If investors were constructive, the narrative would be "buy the dip"

  • instead, many think investors are about to walk into boiling oil (ala tiktok video below)
  • with conviction based upon the "hot" inflation and economic data of January
  • but as we noted multiple times, there are reasons to view Jan strength in inflation as countertrend
  • moreover, February was set to be a "payback month," meaning the probability of gains in the month were low

The good news, the set up for March is entirely different. Keep reading if you would like a perspective.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

PAYBACK (aka Calendar): Feb = payback, March+April = Fire

As you know, we are using the composite of the "rule of 1st 5 days" as the template for 2023 -- this is a calendar template. The other is the breakaway momentum (see note Monday). And as we flagged earlier this year, Feb is a "payback" month:

of the 7 precedent instances, Feb is up only 57% of the time, which is worst of any calendar monthmed...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free