Market breadth surge in 2023 strengthens case stocks surprise to upside in 2023. Also strengthens case Oct 13th was low + Fed made unforced error in Dec.

Equities have been off to a solid start in 2023, gaining nearly 5% so far. As shown below, this strong start in 1st 5 days, particularly when the prior year was negative (ala 2022), bodes well for the remainder of 2023:

  • 1st 5 day >1.4% + neg prior year = 7 instances = median gain 26% (100% win-ratio)
  • If VIX falls on avg vs 2022 (avg 25), median gain is 22% (n=23)
Contrary to the consensus view that stocks will be "flat" in 2023, equity markets seem to be following more closely the hist...

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