Investors more "bearish" in front of Wed Fed Chair Powell at Brookings Institution, but other key macro offsets this...

Investors getting more "bearish" in front of Wed Fed Chair Powell at Brookings Institution

In the first two trading days of this week, equities have been soft. Ostensibly, there are 3 near-term factors that are weighing on equities:

  • Concerns about China protests turmoil and impact on US cos ($AAPL, etc)
  • Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at Brookings Institution Wed and investors expect him to bring the "hawk hammer" and talk down markets
  • S&P 500 is approaching 200D and downtrend line, and investors expect stocks to fail here and turn lower.
  • But we think the key macro reports will be Oct PCE (12/1) and Nov jobs (12/2). The most consequential is likely the Oct PCE (see below).
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There have been a number of pundits talking about equities failing at the above line. Certainly, this seems to be the case earlier in 2022, but in our view, the macro and fundamental backdrops have changed.

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In fact, there are many important macro catalysts in the next two weeks. Below are some key ones flagged:

  • 11/30 10am ET: JOLTS (Oct) --> not critical, should be soft
  • 11/30 1:30pm ET: Fed Chair Powell at Brookings Institution --> expect "hawk" talk
  • 12/1 8:30am ET: PCE Deflator (Oct) --> critical, expect soft
12/1 10am ET: ISM Manufacturin...

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