88% of Americans eat turkey tomo... less "consensus" than % who see recession in 2023. Markets are not "fighting the Fed" if inflation is set to cool.


EATING TURKEY IS CONSENSUS: Belief in a "hard landing" as ubiquitous

The conviction that the US is hurtling towards/or already in a recession is ubiquitous. Many can cite a litany of statistics such as:

  • inverted curve,
  • Fed hikes so fast and so high, it is going to break something,
  • plunge in PMIs,
  • collapse in CEO sentiment,
  • commodity price movements
  • inflation will take "years to control"
  • earnings estimates will fall
  • S&P 500 is below the 200D moving average and every rally has failed there

Belief in this coming "hard landing" is as widely held as eating turkey on Thanksgiving day.


  • 88% of Americans eat turkey on Thanksgiving
  • Is there any other day where something is this ubiquitous?
  • based on our conversations, this 88% is lower than the % who expect a recession in 2023
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Markets are not fighting the Fed if inflation is cooling...

The minority view, which is also mine, is that much of the US inflationary pressure in 2022 has transitory components:

  • supply chain,
  • bullwhip effect,
  • one-offs like healthcare insurance
  • even services like travel had "revenge spend" (not last forever)
Thus, the Fed did not need to go full Volck-an to fight inflation. ...

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