First Word

Next 3 weeks will be decisive on the trajectory for inflation (we think dovish view prevails). Staying half-full.

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STRATEGY: A short week ahead but keep positive seasonals in mind

The US celebrates Thanksgiving this week and given the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in 2022, we expect many Americans to be especially thankful and celebrating. I know I will be having many guests over for Thanksgiving dinner.

  • this also means a shortened trading week
  • No trading Thursday
  • Half session Friday
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DECISIVE DATA POINTS: Next 3 weeks will be decisive

Just my opinion, but we think the next 3 weeks are decisive in the direction of the market narrative. For much of 2022, the central macro narrative is "inflation accelerating and Fed so far behind the curve." But our central view has been that inflation pressures already peaked and it was a matter of time before the "hard" data (CPI, PCE, PPI) synced with the "soft" data (PMIs, major freight and other indices).

October CPI was first real syncing of the data (downside surprise on CPI) and as we commented multiple times, the drivers behind this are repeatable.In the next 3 weeks, we get key incoming inflation reports, which we believe wi...

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