Fed losing patience with inflation progress, near peak "hawkish" vs futures. Retail looks to be near capitulation

Investors appear to have given up all hope for any soft landing post the Sept FOMC (9/21). Looking at market reactions, post-FOMC:

  • Fed Funds futures now pricing 4.75% Fed Funds rate by June 2023
  • Inflation breakevens 1-year forward have dropped to 1.97%
  • Fed Funds implied June 2023 +38bp
  • Inflation 12M forward dropped -32bp
  • Implied Fed funds above the Fed's projection of 4.6% by YE 2023

In other words, one possible way to explain this divergence of the Fed Funds terminal rate up sharply BUT inflation expectations falling is:

  • the Fed has lost patience with waiting for inflation to improve
  • thus, wants to raise the real cost of money to accelerate the decline in inflation
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While the movements in rates raised concerns that a recession is inevitable, this is not necessarily the case. After all, there are a few considerations:

  • inflation is set to ease and if labor markets cool, this puts the Fed in a position to pause
  • JPMorgan Economists reiterate this, noting a soft landing remains the base case
  • this step up in Fed rhetoric can arguably be viewed as "peak Fed hawkishness"
  • as long as inflation begins to decline at a faster pace
The video in this report is only accessible to members

INFLATION DEATH CROSS: Sticky Core CPI (ex-shelter) is actually cooling to 5.2% annualized from 7.8% in M...

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