Investors have become "single issue" voters (inflation)... and Tech + small-caps quietly gaining

Financial markets have become a single-decision market -- Inflation

The May CPI report (reported Friday), coupled with the U Mich Consumer Confidence survey, showed inflation remains sticky. And while there was some evidence, on the margin, of inflation pressures cooling (core CPI), financial markets saw both reports as upside reads to inflation.

  • Equities sold off sharply as both inflation expectations and Fed funds YE 2022 forecasts moved up
  • Inflation forwards (12M) moved up to 5.4%, but below the cycle high of ~6% on 3/24/2022
  • Fed funds by YE 2022 move up 1.5 hikes to 3.3% (2.9% two days ago)

  • Fed Funds are at cycle highs but inflation below peak
  • One interpretation is that markets believe Fed needs to move faster even though inflationary pressures could be cooling. But the pace of cooling is just not sufficient.
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The first 3 days of this coming week are the most consequential

Many of our clients, including macro PMs, note the nearly singular focus on inflation-impacts makes this market environment one of the most dependent they have ever seen. The market moves over the last few days exemplifies this. Over the coming week, there will be quite a lot of incoming data:

May NFIB small biz optimism survey --> wages and inflationMay PPI --> inflati...

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