COVID-19 UPDATE: Cash is the anomalous position. Key is whether NYC can manage the recent outbreak. Cruises plan to test 100% passengers. Why keep the ban?

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

STRATEGY: The most distorted position arguably cash
Odds makers raised the probability of Biden win yesterday--> market rally due to Biden gain?

Post the first 2020 Presidential debate, odds makers raised the probability of a Biden win.  As shown below, to bet on a Biden win, one needs to pay $162 to win $100.  This was $104 to win $100 on 9/1.  As you can see below, the odds rose for Biden since the debate.

- Yesterday, markets are responding to two effects: post-debate and progress on stimulus plan (CARES V)
- Does rally yesterday mean equity markets prefer a Biden win? 

That is not entirely clear, because of the clear impact of progress on a fiscal stimulus package.

The video in this report is only accessible to members


But the acrimony of the first debate was enough to prompt the election committee to change the debate format and structure to ensure a "more orderly discussion" takes place.  The only winner of last night's debate is the enemies of the US.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: Washington PostThe stimulus bill seems closer and Tom Block believes enough Republicans will support it...Our Head of Policy Strategy, Tom Block, believes a COVID-19 bill is closer than many realized.  He points out 13 Republicans in the Senate...

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