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COVID-19 UPDATE: Cash is the anomalous position. Key is whether NYC can manage the recent outbreak. Cruises plan to test 100% passengers. Why keep the ban?

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

STRATEGY: The most distorted position arguably cash
Odds makers raised the probability of Biden win yesterday--> market rally due to Biden gain?

Post the first 2020 Presidential debate, odds makers raised the probability of a Biden win.  As shown below, to bet on a Biden win, one needs to pay $162 to win $100.  This was $104 to win $100 on 9/1.  As you can see below, the odds rose for Biden since the debate.

- Yesterday, markets are responding to two effects: post-debate and progress on stimulus plan (CARES V)
- Does rally yesterday mean equity markets prefer a Biden win? 

That is not entirely clear, because of the clear impact of progress on a fiscal stimulus package.


But the acrimony of the first debate was enough to prompt the election committee to change the debate format and structure to ensure a "more orderly discussion" takes place.  The only winner of last night's debate is the enemies of the US.

Source: Washington PostThe stimulus bill seems closer and Tom Block believes enough Republicans will support it...Our Head of Policy Strategy, Tom Block, believes a COVID-19 bill is closer than many realized.  He points out 13 Republicans in the Senate...

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